Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Are We There Yet?

It is no secret that returns in the capital markets (stocks and bonds) have been volatile (and below historical averages) for the past few years. Some market “experts” are predicting that those lower returns will be the “new normal” for some years to come. If that prediction is correct, individuals must save more to maintain their desired standard of living in retirement.

We are presenting below a “savings checkpoint” table for determining whether your current savings amount is “on schedule” to fund retirement at your current standard of living. The table is a function of current age and income level. This table is based on J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s proprietary model with their capital market assumptions and an 80% confidence level.1  Several additional assumptions are involved:
  • The assumed annual gross savings rate going forward is 10% (about twice the current US average savings rate).
  • Pre-retirement investments earn 6.0% per year.
  • Post-retirement investments earn 5.0% per year.
  • Inflation is 2.25% per year.
  • Retirement age is 65 for the primary wage earner; age 62 for the spouse.
  • Retirement will last 30 years.
You can use the factors in the table below to determine if your accumulated savings is sufficient:

Age
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
30
-
0.5
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.1
2.2
35
0.3
1.2
1.5
2.1
2.6
3.0
3.2
40
0.8
1.9
2.3
3.1
3.7
4.1
4.3
45
1.5
2.8
3.3
4.2
4.9
5.4
5.7
50
2.4
3.9
4.5
5.6
6.4
7.0
7.3
55
3.4
5.2
5.9
7.2
8.2
9.0
9.3
60
4.5
6.8
7.5
9.1
10.4
11.2
11.7

The income levels across the top are gross income (before taxes and savings). Go to the intersection of age and income level to determine the appropriate factor. For example, a 40 year old person earning $100,000 per year has a factor of 2.3. Multiply your current salary times that factor to determine the amount you should have saved today or $230,000 in this case (2.3 x $100,000). Savings are assumed to continue at 10% per year until retirement.

Are we there yet? Please visit us at Paragon Financial Advisors to determine whether your savings level is sufficient to provide the retirement lifestyle you desire. We can help you plan for your future financial goals. Paragon Financial Advisors is a fee only registered investment advisory company located in College Station, TX.  We offer financial planning and investment management services to our clients.

 

1The J.P. Morgan model uses household income replacement rates from an inflation-adjusted analysis of Consumer Expenditure Survey (BLS) data (2011-2014). Social Security benefits are assumed using modified scaled earnings in 2017 for a single wage earner at age 65 and a spousal benefit at age 62 reduced by Medicare Part B premiums.


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